Section 01
Getting started
Drawdown Arc runs entirely in your browser. There's nothing to install, no account required, and your data is never sent to any server. Open the calculator, fill in your numbers, and your projection updates instantly.
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100% Private
All calculations happen locally in your browser. No data is transmitted, stored, or logged anywhere. Close the tab and it's gone.
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Instant Recalculation
Every input change recalculates the full projection in real time. Use the sidebar to adjust any value and all five charts update immediately.
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Collapsible Sections
Click any section header in the sidebar to collapse it. Your scroll position is preserved so you can focus on the inputs you're actively adjusting.
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Export Anytime
Click "Export to Excel" to download a formatted .xlsx with your full projection, all inputs, and your charts embedded as images. A PDF export option is also available.
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Start with real numbers, not estimates
Your Social Security statement at ssa.gov shows your projected benefit at ages 62, 67, and 70. Your 401(k) statements show current balances. Accurate inputs produce meaningful projections — ballpark numbers produce ballpark results.
Section 02
Personal information
These four fields define the timeline of your entire projection. Everything else is calculated relative to your age.
This is year zero of your projection. The calculator builds a year-by-year table from this age through Max Age. All asset balances, contributions, and income sources are measured relative to this starting point. Use your current age, not a future target age.
Used to label the x-axis on charts and the Year column in the projection table. Typically the current calendar year. Doesn't affect any calculations — it's purely for readability.
This is the age at which your "Needed Income" spending begins. Before this age, the needed income is $0 — the assumption being you're earning income from employment. The Growth to Retirement chart shows your assets up to this age. Withdrawal modeling begins here. Note: Social Security and Pension start ages are set separately and can be later than your retirement age.
How far out to project. The default is 100. Planning to 100 ensures you're stress-testing your assets against a long life. If your assets are depleted before Max Age, the charts will show this as a depletion event. Running a longer projection is conservative and recommended.
Section 03
Income sources
Drawdown Arc models three income streams in retirement: Social Security, pension income, and portfolio withdrawals. The first two are guaranteed; the third is drawn from your assets to cover the gap.
You can begin collecting Social Security as early as 62 (with a permanent reduction) or delay to 70 (with an 8% per year increase). Full retirement age is currently 67 for most people born after 1960. Your ssa.gov statement shows projected amounts at different ages. Delaying SS is often the best longevity insurance available.
Enter the annual amount (not monthly). Your SSA statement shows monthly benefits — multiply by 12. This is the amount you'll receive in the first year of collection. If COLA is enabled, this amount grows each subsequent year.
Enter as a percentage (e.g., 2.3 for 2.3%). The historical average Social Security COLA is approximately 2.3% per year. You must also check the "Apply COLA" box for this to take effect. COLA compounds annually starting the year after benefits begin.
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How guaranteed income affects withdrawals
In any year where Social Security + Pension ≥ Needed Income, the projection draws $0 from your portfolio. Withdrawals only occur when guaranteed income falls short of your spending target. This is why delaying SS and maximizing pension often dramatically extends portfolio longevity.
This is your annual retirement spending target — housing, food, healthcare, travel, everything. Enter it in today's dollars. The calculator applies your inflation rate to grow this amount each year after your retirement age begins. A common rule of thumb is 70–80% of your pre-retirement income, but your actual target should come from a real budget.
Enter as a percentage (e.g., 3 for 3%). This grows your Needed Income each year in retirement. The historical U.S. average is approximately 3%. Higher inflation assumptions produce more conservative (pessimistic) projections. This is one of the highest-impact variables in the model.
Section 04
Assets & growth rates
Enter the current balance and expected growth rate for each account you own. The withdrawal order is shown separately in the Capital Structure section.
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Withdrawal order is set in Capital Structure
The order in which accounts are drawn down is shown in the Capital Structure section above each bucket group. It follows a tax-efficient default that prioritizes lower-tax assets first and preserves Roth growth for later years.
Each account grows at its own rate every year, regardless of whether you're making contributions or withdrawals.
Common benchmarks:
• Checking: 0 (no meaningful return)
• Savings / HYSA: 0.1–0.5%
• Bonds / Conservative: 2–4%
• Diversified stock portfolio: 6–8%
• Roth / 401k (index funds): 6–8%
• Crypto: highly variable — model conservatively
The default values use 6% for equity accounts. If you enter nominal growth rates, do not also apply inflation to spending (double-counting). Choose one approach and be consistent.
This amount is added to your Savings account each year between Contribution Start Age and Contribution End Age. It does not model employer matches or split contributions across accounts — it's a single annual lump sum to savings. For a more detailed contribution model, consider distributing manually across your initial balances.
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Growth applies before withdrawals each year
The model grows all assets first, then processes withdrawals. This slightly overestimates returns in years with large withdrawals. In practice, the effect is small for typical withdrawal rates but worth noting for very high spending years.
Section 05
Capital Structure & withdrawal priority
Accounts are grouped and drawn down according to a tax-efficient framework commonly used in retirement planning.
Withdrawals are prioritized to:
• Use lower-tax assets first
• Preserve long-term tax-advantaged growth
• Reduce future required minimum distribution (RMD) burden
• Protect tax-free assets for later years
The default order generally follows:
1. Taxable (Brokerage) — capital gains treatment, draw early
2. Other / Speculative — similar tax profile, higher risk
3. Tax-Deferred (401k / IRA / TSP) — taxed as ordinary income on withdrawal; subject to RMDs at 73
4. Tax-Free (Roth) — preserve for latest years, grows tax-free
5. Savings — liquid reserve buffer
6. Checking — last resort cash
Beginning at age 73, the IRS requires minimum annual withdrawals from tax-deferred accounts (401k, IRA, TSP). The calculator models these using the IRS Uniform Lifetime Table (Publication 590-B, Table III) — each year's RMD equals the post-growth account balance divided by the applicable divisor for that age.
RMDs are taken before any voluntary withdrawals. If the RMD amount exceeds your spending gap for that year, the surplus is deposited into your Savings account rather than removed from the plan — it remains invested as liquid cash.
Sets a target liquidity floor for your combined Checking + Savings balance. In any year where cash exceeds this amount, the surplus is used to cover spending before drawing from investment accounts. This prevents idle cash from accumulating while investment accounts are being drawn down.
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Drag-to-reorder coming soon
The withdrawal order is currently fixed at the tax-efficient default shown in the Capital Structure sidebar. A drag-to-reorder interface to customize the order is planned for a future release.
Section 06
Tax modeling
When taxes are enabled, the calculator applies 2025 federal progressive income tax brackets to your total retirement income and grosses up your withdrawals to ensure taxes are actually covered.
Each year, the calculator:
1. Calculates your total income (SS + Pension + Withdrawals)
2. Subtracts the standard deduction ($14,600 single / $29,200 MFJ)
3. Applies 2025 federal brackets progressively
4. Iteratively increases withdrawals to cover the resulting tax bill
The gross-up runs up to 6 iterations to converge within $1 of the correct tax amount. This means if your withdrawals cause a tax liability, that tax is funded by additional withdrawals — which is how it works in reality.
What's NOT modeled: state income taxes, capital gains rates, Medicare IRMAA surcharges, provisional income rules for SS taxation, RMD minimization strategies (e.g., Roth conversions).
Note on Roth: withdrawals from Roth accounts are included in the tax gross-up for simplicity. In reality, qualified Roth distributions are tax-free, meaning the tool slightly overstates taxes in years when Roth accounts are drawn.
Married Filing Jointly provides a larger standard deduction ($29,200 vs $14,600) and wider tax brackets, which significantly reduces the tax burden on the same income. If you're married and plan to be in retirement, use MFJ. Use Single for conservative solo planning or if applicable.
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Enable taxes for a realistic projection
Leaving taxes disabled understates your withdrawal requirements. Unless you're doing a quick sanity check, we recommend keeping "Include Taxes" checked. The difference between a pre-tax and post-tax projection can be $10,000+ per year in withdrawal requirements.
Section 07
Reading the charts
Five charts give you five different views into your projection. Each one highlights something different. Here's how to read them.
Above the charts, summary cards show key metrics at a glance: peak assets, depletion age, years of retirement funded, funding ratio, estimated total taxes, and average effective tax rate.
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Total Assets Over Time
Your combined portfolio value across all accounts, from today through Max Age. The ideal shape is a peak at retirement followed by a controlled decline that never reaches zero. Hover for milestone callouts.
Retirement Year
SS Begins
Pension Begins
Assets Depleted
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Asset Breakdown — Stacked
Each colored band represents one account type. The total height is your total assets. As accounts are drawn down according to priority, individual bands shrink. Watch which accounts disappear first — this reveals whether your draw order is optimized.
Retirement
SS Starts
Pension Starts
RMD Begins (73)
Depletion
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Withdrawal Timeline
The stacked chart shows where your income comes from each year: pension (amber), Social Security (green), portfolio withdrawals (blue), and taxes paid (red). The white dashed line is your net spending target. When the spending bars (below the line) are fully stacked, your plan is fully funded — the tax bars extend above the line. When bars fall short of the line, you're underfunded.
Pension
Social Security
Withdrawals
Taxes
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Early Retirement Sensitivity
Shows five scenarios of total assets over your full lifetime, varying your retirement age by ±2 years around your chosen target. The gold line is your base case. Use this to see how even small shifts in retirement timing affect long-term portfolio sustainability.
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Spending vs. Inflation-Adjusted Need
Plots your base-case annual spending need alongside ±1% inflation scenarios from retirement age onward. This reveals how sensitive your long-term spending power is to inflation assumptions — one of the highest-impact variables in any retirement projection.
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Three income chart view modes
Use the toggle buttons above the income chart to switch between Stacked Bar (best for totals), Multi-Line (best for comparing individual streams), and Stacked Area (best for visualizing proportions over time).
Section 08
Exporting your projection
Two export options let you save and share your projection. The Excel export generates a formatted .xlsx workbook with four sheets. The PDF export produces a printable summary.
Sheet 1 — Summary: A cover page with your key projection stats.
Sheet 2 — Projection: Year-by-year table with Year, Age, Total Assets, SS Income, Pension Income, Withdrawal, Taxes, and Total Income. Columns are currency-formatted and the first row is frozen.
Sheet 3 — Inputs: Every parameter you entered, labeled, for reference and record-keeping.
Sheet 4 — Charts: All charts captured at high resolution and embedded as images in the spreadsheet.
Generates a printable PDF with your summary stats, projection table, and charts. Useful for quick sharing or printing without requiring Excel.
The exported workbook is ideal for sharing with a fee-only financial advisor. The Inputs sheet makes all your assumptions transparent. A good advisor will challenge your growth rate assumptions and inflation estimate — that's exactly the right conversation to have. The charts sheet provides immediate visual context without requiring them to re-run anything.
Section 09
Assumptions & limitations
Every projection model makes simplifying assumptions. Understanding what Drawdown Arc does and doesn't model helps you interpret results accurately.
| What We Model |
What We Don't Model |
| 2025 Federal income tax (progressive brackets) | State income taxes |
| Standard deduction (single & MFJ) | Itemized deductions |
| Inflation-adjusted spending | Healthcare cost inflation (typically 2–3× CPI) |
| Linear annual growth per account | Sequence of returns risk / volatility |
| Social Security + pension COLA | SS benefit taxation (provisional income rules) |
| Prioritized portfolio withdrawal order | RMD minimization strategies (e.g., Roth conversions) |
| RMDs from tax-deferred accounts (age 73+, Uniform Lifetime Table) | Capital gains rates (Roth withdrawals included in gross-up) |
| Tax gross-up on withdrawals | Medicare IRMAA surcharges |
| Annual contributions pre-retirement | Employer match, contribution splits across accounts |
| Asset depletion detection | Social Security insolvency risk post-2033 |
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This is not financial advice
Drawdown Arc is a projection and planning tool, not a registered investment advisor. Projections are estimates based on simplified assumptions and your inputs. Do not make major financial decisions based solely on these outputs. Consult a qualified, fee-only financial advisor for personalized guidance.